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近期，商學(xué)院青年教師李揚(yáng)的論文“Exploring the Spoiler Effect in the Digital Age: Evidence from the Movie Industry”被運(yùn)營(yíng)管理與管理科學(xué)領(lǐng)域權(quán)威期刊《Decision Support Systems》收錄?！禗ecision Support Systems》屬于JCR SCI一區(qū)，2021年影響因子5.795, ABS 3, ABDC A*, FMS管理科學(xué)高質(zhì)量期刊信息管理A類(lèi)。

論文簡(jiǎn)介：

現(xiàn)如今，網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑已成為現(xiàn)代企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)的重要推動(dòng)力，大量研究發(fā)現(xiàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑在產(chǎn)品銷(xiāo)售、品牌推廣等方面的積極影響。然而，對(duì)于電影這類(lèi)敘事型產(chǎn)品，消費(fèi)者通過(guò)網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑雖然可以獲取積極的決策支持信息，但其中關(guān)于產(chǎn)品劇情的信息卻可能造成劇透的負(fù)面影響。網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑中的陰暗面（dark side）往往被學(xué)界所忽視。

本研究利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)爬蟲(chóng)抓取豆瓣網(wǎng)465部電影的279,433條電影評(píng)論，利用劇透警告機(jī)制有效識(shí)別了網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑中的劇透信息，通過(guò)動(dòng)態(tài)廣義矩估計(jì)模型（Dynamic GMM）結(jié)合工具變量法，對(duì)電影市場(chǎng)中的劇透效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了探究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，劇透對(duì)電影票房具有顯著的負(fù)面影響，這種影響主要作用于電影上映的前6天。而敘事性、網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑?dāng)?shù)量和網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑差異均會(huì)對(duì)劇透效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)向的調(diào)節(jié)作用。這一研究結(jié)論拓寬了學(xué)界對(duì)敘事產(chǎn)品網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑的認(rèn)識(shí)，為網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)和娛樂(lè)產(chǎn)業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)提供了有效的建議。

ABSTRACT

For narrative products such as movies, books, and TV shows, electronic word of mouth (eWOM) can be a double-edged sword. It provides consumers with useful information while potentially revealing the storyline, that is, spoiling the surprise of what will happen. Prior studies have focused on the impact of spoilers on consumers’ experiences through psychological experiments. However, the relationship between spoilers and narrative product sales has rarely been empirically explored.

To fill this gap, the current study explores the impact of spoilers on the movie box office revenue and how this impact evolves over time. We collected 279,433 reviews of 465 films on a leading community website in China and constructed a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model with instrumental variables to empirically examine the spoiler effect in the movie market. Our findings indicate that spoilers have a negative influence on the movie box office revenue.

However, this impact is limited to the first six days after the movie is released. We also discover that spoilers have a stronger negative effect on narrative-based movies than non-narrative-based movies. Furthermore, eWOM volume and eWOM variance negatively moderate the spoiler effect on the box office revenue, but the moderating effect of eWOM valence is not significant. These findings can deepen movie industry decision makers’ and platform providers’ understanding of spoilers, helping them devise more feasible eWOM operation strategies.

李揚(yáng)，畢業(yè)于南開(kāi)大學(xué)商學(xué)院管理科學(xué)與工程系，2020年9月入職山東師范大學(xué)商學(xué)院。主要研究方向?yàn)樯缃幻襟w、網(wǎng)絡(luò)口碑和在線(xiàn)消費(fèi)者行為。以第一作者或通訊作者在《南開(kāi)管理評(píng)論》、《管理科學(xué)》、《運(yùn)籌與管理》等權(quán)威期刊發(fā)表學(xué)術(shù)論文多篇。

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山東師范大學(xué)商學(xué)院

排版/ 江飛雪

責(zé)編/ 高薏涵

審編/ 張麗菲

終審/ 杜 東

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