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[重點(diǎn)詞匯]

sequencing n. [計(jì)] 排序；[計(jì)] 定序

cryptocurrencies 加密數(shù)字貨幣

convergences [數(shù)] 收斂

投資者需注意的五大技術(shù)巨變

Stand ready for the big fivetechnology convulsions reshaping markets

伍德：我們認(rèn)為，DNA測(cè)序、機(jī)器人技術(shù)、能源存儲(chǔ)、人工智能和區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)這五大創(chuàng)新的平臺(tái)將改變?nèi)蚪?jīng)濟(jì)。

The global economy appears to have entered a period of convulsive changes, some exceptionally good and others devastating, that could shape financial markets for years to come.

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了一個(gè)劇烈變化的時(shí)期——有些變化特別好，有些則是災(zāi)難性的——這些變化可能會(huì)在未來幾年影響金融市場。

In Ark’s view, any company not investing aggressively in one or more of five major platforms of innovation will lose its way. In harm’s way are companies that have engineered their financial results to satisfy the short-term demands of short-sighted investors.

方舟認(rèn)為，任何企業(yè)如不對(duì)五大“創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)”(innovation platform)中的一個(gè)或多個(gè)進(jìn)行積極投資，都將迷失方向。有些公司刻意讓財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績滿足只看眼前的投資者的短期要求，這樣的公司將處境危險(xiǎn)。

Those that have leveraged their balance sheets to buy back shares and pay dividends are at particular risk as they will have less balance sheet flexibility to invest in response to the technological shift.

那些利用杠桿擴(kuò)大資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表以回購股票和派發(fā)股息的公司更是危險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)樗鼈兊馁Y產(chǎn)負(fù)債表彈性較小，沒有多少余地進(jìn)行使它們可以順應(yīng)技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)變的投資。

Seeded during the tech and telecom bubble more than 20 years ago, the five main platforms of innovation that we think will transform the global economy are: DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. These involve 14 technologies including gene therapies, 3D printing, cloud computing, big data analytics, and cryptocurrencies.

我們認(rèn)為將改變?nèi)蚪?jīng)濟(jì)的五大創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)是：DNA測(cè)序、機(jī)器人技術(shù)、能源存儲(chǔ)、人工智能和區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)，它們都是在20多年前的科技和電信泡沫時(shí)期播下種子的。這五大平臺(tái)涉及14項(xiàng)技術(shù)，包括基因療法、3D打印、云計(jì)算、大數(shù)據(jù)分析和加密貨幣。

Importantly, they cut across economic sectors, posing problems for research efforts that are short term, siloed, and highly specialised. In our experience, most research departments of banks and fund managers are structured in that way, creating inefficiencies to be exploited as “convergences” create the new world order.

重要的是，它們涉及所有經(jīng)濟(jì)部門，給短期的、孤立的、高度專業(yè)化的調(diào)研工作造成問題。根據(jù)我們的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，銀行和基金管理公司的研究部門大多數(shù)都是以這種方式運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的，當(dāng)各種技術(shù)的“融合”(convergence)創(chuàng)造出新的世界秩序時(shí)，這種方式就會(huì)導(dǎo)致低效率。

We think sectors most at risk of disintermediation are energy, industrials, consumer discretionary, communications services, healthcare, and financial services.

我們認(rèn)為去中介化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大的行業(yè)是能源、工業(yè)、非必需消費(fèi)品、通信服務(wù)、醫(yī)療保健和金融服務(wù)。

As autonomous transport evolves, for example, autos, rails, and airlines are likely to capitulate to the convergence of robotics, energy storage, and artificial intelligence. Combined, these forces will collapse the cost structure of transport. Traditional healthcare is also likely to give way to the convergence of next generation DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence, and gene therapies.

例如，隨著自動(dòng)交通的發(fā)展，汽車、鐵路和航空公司可能會(huì)讓位于機(jī)器人、能源存儲(chǔ)和人工智能的融合。在這幾大力量的共同作用下，交通運(yùn)輸?shù)某杀窘Y(jié)構(gòu)將會(huì)瓦解。傳統(tǒng)醫(yī)療也可能讓位于下一代DNA測(cè)序、人工智能和基因療法的融合。

Meanwhile, in traditional financial services, the middlemen that dominate today’s financial ecosystem face disintermediation thanks to application programming interfaces (APIs), social platforms and blockchain technology that will enable the convergence of business and consumer marketplaces.

與此同時(shí)，在傳統(tǒng)金融服務(wù)領(lǐng)域，在當(dāng)今金融生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中占主導(dǎo)地位的中間商將面臨去中介化，這是由于應(yīng)用程序編程接口(API)、社交平臺(tái)和區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)將使企業(yè)和消費(fèi)市場能夠融合。

The convulsions will throw company forecasts for a loop, particularly in the developed world, which is saddled with mature infrastructure.

這些變化將對(duì)企業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響，尤其是在發(fā)達(dá)國家，成熟的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施成了它們的負(fù)擔(dān)。

Broadly defined, the sectors at risk of disintermediation account for more than half of the S&P 500. Though at small bases today, we believe most innovation platforms are entering dramatic growth trajectories thanks to lower costs and higher productivity.

粗略劃分的話，存在去中介化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行業(yè)占標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的一半以上。雖然現(xiàn)在基礎(chǔ)還很小，但我們相信隨著成本降低和生產(chǎn)率提高，大多數(shù)創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)正在進(jìn)入劇烈增長軌道。

For example, we forecast that in response to the 28 per cent cost decline in lithium-ion batteries for every cumulative doubling in units produced globally, prices will continue to fall, “turbocharging” electric vehicle sales.

例如，我們預(yù)測(cè)全球鋰電池產(chǎn)量每擴(kuò)大一倍，其成本就會(huì)下降28%，導(dǎo)致價(jià)格不斷下跌，從而極大地推動(dòng)電動(dòng)汽車銷量。

According to our estimates, EV sales will increase 20-fold globally during the next five years, from an estimated 2m and about 2.5 per cent of the market this year to 40m and about 45 per cent in 2025. Even if you think this ambitious, the direction of travel appears clear. It is one reason why Ark is a shareholder in Tesla.

據(jù)我們估計(jì)，未來5年全球電動(dòng)汽車銷量將增長20倍，今年估計(jì)銷量為200萬輛，市場份額約2.5%；2025年將增至4000萬輛，市場份額約45%。即使你認(rèn)為這過于雄心勃勃，但前進(jìn)的方向是明確的。這也是方舟入股特斯拉(Tesla)的原因之一。

The bad news is that the more expensive petrol-powered cars that dominate the market today will lose almost half of their sales base. Moreover, if transport goes autonomous, as we believe it will, the auto market will continue to shrink as the capacity utilisation per car increases.

壞消息是，在當(dāng)前市場占主導(dǎo)的較昂貴的汽油車將失去近一半的銷售基礎(chǔ)。此外，如果交通如我們所料實(shí)現(xiàn)了自動(dòng)化，由于每輛車的容量利用率上升，汽車市場將繼續(xù)萎縮。

More broadly, if our forecasts for the five innovation platform are near the mark, there will be an economic impact. Both growth in the value of goods and inflation are likely to surprise on the low side of expectations as market share shifts to the poorly measured digital world and as the “good” deflation associated with technology takes hold.

廣泛地講，如果我們對(duì)這五個(gè)創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)的預(yù)測(cè)是準(zhǔn)確的，它們將對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響。隨著未被恰當(dāng)估量的數(shù)字技術(shù)所占市場份額不斷擴(kuò)大，以及與技術(shù)相關(guān)的“好的”通縮站穩(wěn)腳跟，商品價(jià)值和通脹的增長都可能低于預(yù)期。

We believe the winners will win in a big way but losers, particularly those that have levered balance sheets to satisfy certain stakeholders, will unwind. While risk-free interest rates are likely to remain low, spreads between companies on debt costs could widen dramatically as disruptive innovation — the likes of which we have not seen since the telephone, electricity, and the automobile burst on the scene in the Roaring Twenties — causes dislocation.

我們認(rèn)為贏家將獲得巨大的勝利，而輸家將收縮業(yè)務(wù)，尤其是那些通過杠桿化資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表來滿足某些利益相關(guān)者的企業(yè)。盡管無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率可能仍將維持在低位，但隨著顛覆性創(chuàng)新——我們上一次看到這種創(chuàng)新還是在“咆哮的二十年代”(Roaring Twenties)，電話、電和汽車問世——引發(fā)混亂，不同企業(yè)間，債務(wù)成本之差可能會(huì)急劇擴(kuò)大。

So, investors beware. Innovation appears to be evolving at such a rapid pace that traditional equity benchmarks are being populated increasingly by so-called value traps — stocks that are “cheap” for a reason. Critical to investment success will be moving to the right side of change.

所以，投資者要小心了。創(chuàng)新似乎在以極快的速度邁進(jìn)，以至于傳統(tǒng)的股票基準(zhǔn)中日益充斥著所謂的價(jià)值陷阱——這些股票之所以“便宜”是有原因的。投資要取得成功，關(guān)鍵將是在面對(duì)變化時(shí)要選擇正確的方向。

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劉紀(jì)鵬：中國政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院院長、MBA教育中心主任、二級(jí)教授、博士生導(dǎo)師、高級(jí)研究員、高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師、注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師。

孟令星：中國政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院講師、MBA教育中心招生部主任、清華大學(xué)商法學(xué)博士、中國人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)法學(xué)博士后、美國哈佛大學(xué)進(jìn)修學(xué)者。

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