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jargon n. 行話；行業(yè)術(shù)語(yǔ)

pandemic n. （全國(guó)或全球性）流行?。淮罅餍胁?/p>

dispersion n. 散布；驅(qū)散

年度詞匯：R值

Year in a word: R number

新冠疫情讓流行病學(xué)術(shù)語(yǔ)進(jìn)入大眾日常語(yǔ)匯。當(dāng)權(quán)者最喜歡談?wù)揜值，而不是解釋為何有如此多的超額死亡人數(shù)。

(noun) the reproduction number of an infectious disease, or the number of people to whom each infected person typically spreads the virus while infectious.

R值(R number)（名詞）R指繁殖(reprodction)，一種傳染病的R值，代表每個(gè)感染者具有傳染性時(shí)通常傳染給多少個(gè)其他人。

Every four years, the Winter Olympics rolls around and people become overnight experts in the sport of curling, dropping the newly acquired jargon into our small talk.

冬奧會(huì)每4年舉辦一次，每當(dāng)這時(shí)，人們一夜之間就變成了冰壺運(yùn)動(dòng)專家，在閑聊中使用起這些新學(xué)的術(shù)語(yǔ)。

This year the same thing has happened with epidemiology. No casual catch up is complete without a brief discussion (or heated argument) about excess deaths, false positives, case fatality rates and, of course, the R number.

今年，在流行病學(xué)術(shù)語(yǔ)上也發(fā)生了同樣的事。一段閑聊中如果沒(méi)有短暫地聊起（或激烈地爭(zhēng)論起）超額死亡人數(shù)、假陽(yáng)性、死亡率、當(dāng)然還有R值，這就不算一段完整的閑聊。

All these terms have surged exponentially (R>1) in usage this year, but the darling of the establishment has surely been the R number. It’s a refreshingly simple metric — above one is bad, below one is good — and political leaders would far rather be talking in teacherly tones about keeping R below one than explaining why the excess death toll is so high.

今年，所有這些術(shù)語(yǔ)的使用都呈指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)(R值>1)，但當(dāng)權(quán)者最喜歡談的必然是R值。它是一個(gè)令人耳目一新的簡(jiǎn)單度量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——大于1不好，小于1好——政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人更愿意用說(shuō)教的口吻談?wù)搶值保持在1以下，而不是解釋為何超額死亡人數(shù)如此之高。

Early in the pandemic, searches for “R number” dominated on Google, with the spring peak climbing above searches for “excess deaths” and “do masks work” across the English-speaking world.

在整個(gè)英語(yǔ)世界，谷歌(Google)上對(duì)“R number”的搜索量從疫情早期就激增，在春季達(dá)到頂峰，超過(guò)了“excess death（超額死亡人數(shù)）”和“do masks work（口罩有用嗎）”的搜索量。

But its utility has been limited. Daily case numbers are available in every country, whereas the R number is often harder to find, if available at all. It’s human nature to pay more attention to figures representing actual people. Anyway, most of the time, if case numbers are falling (and testing isn’t), then so is R.

但R值用處有限。每個(gè)國(guó)家都公布單日新增確診病例數(shù)量，但R值卻往往很難找到——如果這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)有的話。對(duì)代表真實(shí)的人的數(shù)字給予更多關(guān)注是人的天性。無(wú)論如何，在大多數(shù)情況下，如果確診病例數(shù)量下降（同時(shí)檢測(cè)數(shù)量并未下降），那么R值也會(huì)下降。

And transmission of coronavirus is dominated by super-spreading events. Studies show around 70 per cent of people with the virus never pass it on to anyone, and about 10 per cent account for 60 per cent of infections. A more infectious strain may tweak these numbers at the edges, but the broad pattern will be unchanged.

新冠病毒的傳播主要由超級(jí)傳播事件主導(dǎo)。研究顯示，約70%的感染者從未將病毒傳染給其他人，約10%的感染者造成了60%的傳播。一種更具傳染性的毒株可能稍稍改變這些數(shù)字，但總體模式不會(huì)改變。

The R number is the average of many wildly different situations and so by its nature it fails to represent how most infections happen. Tailoring policy to an aggregate number can encourage unnecessarily all-encompassing restrictions, whereas a focus on the few events that account for most transmission offers maximum impact for minimum disruption.

R值是各種完全不同情況的平均數(shù)，因此本質(zhì)上它不能代表大多數(shù)傳染是如何發(fā)生的。根據(jù)整體數(shù)字調(diào)整政策，可能鼓勵(lì)沒(méi)有必要的全面限制措施，而把重點(diǎn)放在造成大多數(shù)傳染的少數(shù)事件上，可以用最小的干擾實(shí)現(xiàn)最大的效果。

So, for those who are serious in their armchair epidemiology, you might consider getting acquainted with the finer points of the dispersion factor, k.

因此，對(duì)于那些坐在扶手椅里認(rèn)真研究流行病學(xué)的人來(lái)說(shuō)，你可以考慮了解一個(gè)更細(xì)致的指標(biāo)：反映離散度的K值。